Service Plays Thursday 06/11/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Cardinals Wednesday night.

Today it's the Lakers. The surplus is 720 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist Bonus Play

(911) CINCINNATI REDS
(912) WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Take "(912) WASHINGTON NATIONALS"

This isn't a bad Washington offense, one ranked 7th in the NL in scoring and 3rd in on base percentage. It's the pitching that is the problem, though for this game they have a good one going in John Lannan (3.68 ERA). Cincy is weak in all offensive categories, plus starter Micah Owings (3-7, 4.90 ERA) walks too many batters (30 in 60 innings). A good spot for the home team. Play the Nationals.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin Bonus Play

(911) CINCINNATI REDS
(912) WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Take "(911) CINCINNATI REDS"

Tonight's Bonus Play isn't exactly rocket science. The Nationals are awful, and they've been absolutely horrendous as chalk this season. John Lannan is a decent pitcher and he's been okay lately, but the Nationals simply don't rate being this much chalk against anyone. I'll go with the Reds to complete the series sweep.

 

[mp5070]

Rated Picks

NBA:
Orlando Magic -2

MLB:
St Louis Cardinals +110
Detroit Tigers -120
Detroit Tigers/Chicago WhiteSox UNDER 9
Chicago Cubs/Houston Astros OVER 9.5

 

[whitelightning]

Maddux Sports

Basketball
#708 - NBA - 3 units on LA Lakers & Orlando Under 201

Today's Free Pick is Orlando -2.5
Reply With Quote

 

[whitelightning]

Sports Advisors
NBA FINALS

L.A. Lakers (14-7 SU, 12-9 ATS) at Orlando (13-9 SU, 11-11 ATS)

After climbing back into the series with a victory in Game 3, the Magic aim to tie up the best-of-7 NBA Finals when they host Game 4 against the Lakers at Amway Arena.

Orlando shot an NBA Finals-record 62.5 percent from the field Tuesday night – including a whopping 75 percent in the first half – and hung on for a 108-104 victory, pushing as a four-point home chalk. Five Magic players scored at least 18 points, paced by Dwight Howard (21 points, 14 rebounds) and Rashard Lewis (21 points). Rafer Alston added 20 points, and Mickael Pietrus and Hedo Turkoglu chipped in 18 apiece, with Turkoglu also contributing seven assists.

Kobe Bryant paced Los Angeles with 31 points and eight assists, but he went just 5 of 10 from the free-throw line, and the Lakers finished 16 of 26 from the charity stripe (61.5 percent), well off Orlando’s 23-for-30 foul-line effort (76.7 percent). Pau Gasol added 23 points but had just three rebounds in a battle of two hot-shooting teams – L.A. hit a respectable 51.3 percent from the floor. However, the Lakers lost the rebounding battle for the first time in this series.

Including this series, Orlando is 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS this season against Los Angeles and 5-2-1 ATS (4-4 SU) in the last eight clashes in this rivalry. In addition, the underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, with the road team 6-2-1 ATS during this span. The Lakers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five outings at Amway Arena.

Orlando is 40-11 SU (29-21-1 ATS) at home this season, including 8-2 SU (6-3-1 ATS) in the postseason. Los Angeles is 33-17 SU (27-22-1 ATS) on the highway, but just 4-5 SU (4-4-1 ATS) in road playoff games.

The Magic are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five starts against the Western Conference, but they remain on several ATS upswings, including 8-2-1 overall, 4-0-1 at home, 21-8-1 against the Western Conference and 5-1-1 as a playoff chalk.

The Lakers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five and sport additional pointspread streaks of 7-0 following a SU loss, 22-8-3 as road underdog, 16-7-1 catching less than five points and 4-1 after a day off. On the flip side, L.A. still carries negative ATS streaks of 2-11-2 in the Finals and 3-11-1 against the Southeast Division.

The last six meetings between these squads in Orlando have cleared the posted price, with Tuesday’s game soaring over the 198-point total. The over is also on a 5-1 run with the Lakers as a road pup and is also on rolls for Orlando of 4-0 after a day off and 4-1 following a SU win.

On the flip side, Orlando sports “under” trends of 6-1 against the West and 7-3 as a playoff chalk, and the under for Los Angeles is on surges of 10-3 overall, 7-1 against the Eastern Conference, 5-1 against the Southeast Division and 17-4 after a SU loss.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
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[whitelightning]

Sports Advisors
NATIONAL LEAGUE

Philadelphia (34-23) at N.Y. Mets (31-26)

The Phillies finally conclude a 10-game, three-city road trip tonight when they send veteran lefty Jamie Moyer (4-5, 6.27 ERA) to the Citi Field mound, while the Mets are scheduled to counter with Tim Redding (0-2, 6.97) in the rubber match of a three-game series.

Philadelphia rallied from a 4-1 deficit last night and got a 10th-inning home run from Chase Utley – his second of the game – to pull out a 5-4 victory while moving to 6-3 on its current road swing. The Phillies 14-5 in their last 19 on the highway and they continue to sport baseball’s best road record at 22-9. Furthermore, the defending World Series champions are on lengthy hot streaks of 58-29 overall, 36-16 as a visitor, 24-9 on the road against right-handed starters, 39-17 against winning teams and 9-3 versus N.L. East rivals.

The Mets are just 4-6 in their last 10 contests, but they’re on positive upticks of 8-3 in divisional games, 6-2 at home, 11-4 on Thursday and 22-9 at home against southpaw starters.

Dating to last season, the Mets are still on an 11-6 overall run in this rivalry (4-2 this season), winning six of the last nine clashes in New York (3-1 at Citi Field this year).

Moyer seems to have turned his season around, delivering three quality starts in his last four trips to the hill, including Friday in Los Angeles when he limited the Dodgers to two runs on four hits and no walks in seven innings. However, Phillies closer Brad Lidge blew Moyer’s win and Philadelphia lost 4-3, dropping to 1-5 in Moyer’s last six starts overall and 2-5 in his last seven road outings. On the bright side, the Phillies are 31-11 when Moyer faces N.L. East competition.

Moyer is 2-2 with a 5.60 ERA in five road starts and 1-5 with a 7.61 ERA in seven night games. He’s also 7-5 with a 3.62 ERA in 19 career starts against the Mets, including 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in two contests this year (12 runs allowed in eight total innings), with the Phillies winning 6-5 at home and losing 7-5 at Citi Field.

Redding is coming off his best start of the season, as he gave up just a run in six innings at Washington on Friday, failing to get a decision as the Mets prevailed 3-1 in 10 innings. In his two previous outings, Redding surrendered 13 runs (all earned) in 8 2/3 innings, losing to Boston and Florida by respective scores of 12-5 and 7-3. The veteran right-hander has faced the Phillies 11 times in his career, going 5-3 with a 3.29 ERA.

The under is 4-0 in Moyer’s last four starts overall, 13-6 in his last 19 on the highway, 8-3 in his last 11 on Thursday and 14-6-1 in his last 21 against winning teams. Also, six of Moyer’s last seven starts in New York have stayed low. Conversely, going back to last year when he pitched for Washington, Redding has topped the total in seven of his last 10 starts.

Philadelphia carries “under” trends of 12-5-1 overall, 7-4-1 on the road, 15-5-2 on Thursday and 5-0 in the third game of a series. Likewise, the Mets are on “under” runs of 13-7-2 overall, 4-2 versus the N.L. East and 5-2 versus lefty starters. However, the over is 24-7-1 in New York’s last 32 Thursday tilts and 5-1-1 in the last six Mets-Phillies clashes in the Big Apple.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees (34-25) at Boston (35-24)

CC Sabathia (5-3, 3.56) makes his first start at Fenway Park in a Yankees uniform, and he’ll try to get New York its first victory this season against the Red Sox, who will counter with Brad Penny (5-2, 5.85) in the finale of a three-game series.

One night after blanking the Yankees 7-0, the Red Sox held on for a 6-5 victory Tuesday to take over sole possession of first place in the A.L. East while improving to 7-0 against their hated rivals this season. The BoSox are on upticks of 85-37 at home, 18-6 against the A.L. East and 40-14 on Thursday.

Despite losing the last two games, New York is still on runs of 19-8 overall, 7-4 on the highway, 7-3 against divisional foes, 11-6 versus right-handed starters and 4-1 on Thursday.

Not only are the Red Sox are a perfect 7-0 against the Bronx Bombers this season, but they’ve won eight straight meetings dating to last year, going 6-0 at Fenway Park. The Red Sox have scored a total of 51 runs in seven contests against Yankee pitching this season.

Sabathia’s streak of five consecutive quality starts (2.08 ERA) ended with Saturday’s 9-7 home loss to Tampa Bay, in which he gave up five runs (four earned) on five hits (two home runs) in eight innings. The portly lefty had pitched at least seven innings in six straight starts, with New York winning four of those contests. Sabathia has been solid on the highway this season, going 4-2 with a 3.07 ERA, and he’s been dominant under the lights (5-1, 1.93 ERA at night as opposed to 0-2, 5.49 ERA in day games).

During his time with the Indians, Sabathia made seven regular-season starts against the Red Sox, going 2-4 with a 3.91 ERA. However, the last time he saw Boston was in the 2007 American League Championship Series, and he went 0-2 with a 10.45 ERA as the Indians got drubbed 10-3 at Fenway and 7-1 at home in a decisive Game 7.

Penny suffered his first Fenway Park setback Saturday against Texas, falling 5-1 after giving up all five runs in 7 2/3 innings. Boston is 3-5 in the veteran right-hander’s last eight trips to the mound, with Penny posting a 5.20 ERA during this stretch. He’s now 3-1 in four home outings despite a beefy 6.51 ERA, and he’s 3-1 with a 7.12 ERA in six night starts.

Penny’s experience against the Yankees has been limited to three starts when he was with the Marlins – one interleague game in 2000 and two World Series starts in 2003 – and he gave up a total of six earned runs in 17 1/3 innings (3.12 ERA), with New York losing all three contests.

The Yankees are on “under” stretches of 11-5-2 overall, 5-1-2 on the road, 9-3-2 against winning clubs and 4-1 in Sabathia’s last five road starts. Also, the Red Sox are on “under” runs of 20-6-2 overall, 7-1-1 at home (4-0-1 last four) and 6-2-1 versus divisional opponents. Lastly, the under is now 5-1-1 in the last seven Yanks-Sox at Fenway and 5-2-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER

 

[whitelightning]

Cappers Access
Lakers
Marlins

 

[whitelightning]

Joe Wiz Bonus Plays
Phillies
Yankees
Angels
Reply With Quote

 

[whitelightning]

Good Thursday morning to all

Benjamin lee Eckstein

Ben lee won on Wednsday with the Rays Pk/Angles.

For Thursday "Mr Chalk" likes the Brew crew -$180/Rockies.

"Mr Chalk" is 2-0 +$200 for the week and 38-24 -$90 for the MLB season

 

[Ryangene]

Jim Feist
NBA Finals
5-Star Inner Circle "Total" Crusher!


NBA (707) LAKERS VS (708) MAGIC.
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.
Play Game 4 Lakers/Magic Under the total.

 

[JimmyHird]

khaliagent paid pick

*St Louis Cardinals ML +100 (large)
----------
Paid and confirmed by me.

got both his paid picks, one big play yesterday. posted frees in the other thread.

 

[cork999]

Craig Davis
Craig Davis Thursday's Lineup
40 Dime ---- LAKERS (If the line is +2 1/2, buy the half point up to +3. If your line is +3, buy it up to +3 1/2)

25 Dime ---- RANGERS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (Must list Millwood as starting pitcher)

5 Dime ---- BREWERS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (Must List Gallardo as starting pitcher)

LAKERS (Buy the 1/2 point if your line is +2 1/2 and also if it's +3) --- I can't really add anything to the massive analysis I had on the Lakers in Game 3 of the series. I still believe the Lakers are the better overall team and if Kobe Bryant could have hit his free throws, we might be talking about a Lakers 3-0 lead instead of a 2-1 advantage.

Kobe personally blames himself for the Game 3 loss for a few reasons... all of which I don't see happening in Game 4 tonight. First, he blames himself for the missed free throws. Honestly, there's no excuse for him to miss as many free throws as he did in Game 3, and I read where he spent much of Wednesday shooting free throws on both ends of the floor. Like him or hate him, he's a hard worker.

Secondly, turnovers. His crucial fourth quarter turnover to Michael Petrius could have been the back breaker. The Lakers had a chance to take the lead, but instead sent the Magic to the line on the other end. He must, and will, clean up the errors for the Lakers to grab a 3-1 lead.

Third, points in the second half. Kobe simply wore down, scoring just ten points in the second half of Tuesday's game, likely due in large part to his performance in the second half and overtime of Game 2 in L.A. Bryant looked sluggish down the stretch and could have cost his team the game. You can bet, without a doubt, he will "will" this team to a win in Game 4.

As I mentioned in my analysis Tuesday, the Lakers (aside from Game 3) have really started to step up their defensive intensity. In the first two games of this series, L.A. held the Magic to less than 89 points in regulation and they still didn't allow Orlando to score triple digits despite giving them five extra minutes during overtime. Orlando isn't invincible at home, and the road team (and underdog) when these two meet is covering ATS nearly 80% of the time. Play the Lakers PLUS tonight.

TEXAS RANGERS (on the run line) (must list Kevin Millwood) --- Are you kidding me? Am I to believe the Blue Jays have actually gone into Texas and taken the first two games of this series? Well, that's exactly what has happened and the buck stops here. Kevin Millwood won't let his team drop another game at home, especially against a team they have OWNED over the years at home. Toronto pitched a shutout last night, beating the Rangers 9-0. The night before saw Toronto beat Scott Feldman 6-3 (yes, I was on the Rangers that night too). Tonight, there's no chance Texas allows Toronto to get another win on their home turf.

Kevin Millwood is sizzling right now, allowing just five earned runs in his last three starts (18 2/3 innings). For the season, his record might only be 5-4, but his ERA is 2.96 and his WHIP is 1.26, not to mention the fact he hasn't suffered a loss since May 21st, a 4-3 loss at Detroit. You see, it's actually beneficial for us that Millwood is pitching at home. For the season, his home ERA is 2.59 in eight games, with a 3-1 W/L record. For his career, Millwood is a better pitcher at home too with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.27 in 170 games started. In his last start, Millwood had his best game of the year, blanking the Boston Red Sox for 7 innings, allowing just seven hits in a 5-1 Texas win.

Toronto counters with Ricky Romero... a lefty who is about to face a powerful right-handed hitting lineup. Romero has allowed 13 earned runs in his last three starts and knowing the Rangers have only scored three runs in two games vs. Toronto in this series, he could be run out of the game by the 4th inning. Texas still dominates at home despite the losses, especially when listed as a favorite. Toronto, conversely, is still not a good road team and has dropped 9 of their last 11 away from Toronto. Play the Rangers on the run line as your top rated baseball play of the day.

BREWERS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (Must list Gallardo as starting pitcher) --- Sorry Rockies fans, but it's just not happening today. There's NO WAY the Rockies will sweep the Brewers in Miller Park, especially not with Yovani Gallardo on the hill. The guy has been absolute money much of the year, touting a 2.84 season ERA, winning 6 games while dropping just two, but the Brewers are 8-3 in his 11 games started so far. When he pitches, they win. His season WHIP is 1.08 which is absolutely incredible, but it's even better in his last three starts (0.98). Oh, and get this... Gallardo has allowed just one earned run in his last three starts and we're talking about 23+ innings of work. Folks, that's less than a 0.50 ERA.

Colorado counters with Aaron Cook. The problem with Cook is that he's too erratic, sometimes dominating and other times getting dominated. So I checked it out... and it appears the guilty culprit is his walk total. When Cook has command of his fastball, he's very good.... like his last outing where he nearly blanked the St. Louis Cardinals. When he doesn't have command, he starts to struggle, putting base runners on via walks and then a few timely hits. The next thing you know, Cook is down 3-0, and if that happens today, Colorado has very little chance of mounting a comeback. Bottom line here is that Gallardo is on fire and Cook is average... Gallardo dominates again today as the Brewers win going away.



BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------GL GUYS

 

[cork999]

Al DeMarco
Al DeMarco Thursday's Play 5 Dime - Los Angeles Lakers

Note: I'm instructing you to buy up the 1/2 point - see below

Resiliency defined: The Lakers have lost six games straight-up in the playoffs. They are 6-0 SU and ATS in the following game winning by 14 at Utah, by margins of 13, 30 and 19 at home versus Houston, by 6 at Denver and 9 at home against the Nuggets.

Orlando, playing in a must-win situation on Tuesday, shot a blistering 63% from the field and still barely held on for a 108-104 win.

The Magic barely won Game Three despite Kobe Bryant, who had 17 points in the final 5:41 of the first quarter and 21 at halftime, fading down the stretch, missing 10 of his final 13 shots.

The Magic barely won Game Three despite outrebounding LA for the first time in the series, holding Pau Gasol to just three boards.

Was Orlando's Game Three triumph surprising? Not really considering the law of averages was bound to go in the Magic's favor after they shot a miserable 29.9% in Game One and a slightly better - but still pathetic - 41.8% in Game Two.

That same law of averages dictates they will not shoot 75% from the field in the first half tonight, as they did in Game Three, or finish at 63% overall for the contest. Nor will LA miss 10 critical free throws, as the Lakers converted just 62% from the charity stripe on Tuesday. Same goes with Kobe shooting 2-for-6 in the fourth quarter, missing all three of his shots from beyond the arc.

Depending on when and where you placed your bet for Game Three, the final result was either a push or an LA victory. Even counting it as a push, the Lakers are on a 22-8-3 roll as a road dog; 16-7-1 when getting five points or less as they are for the second straight time in this series. Plus, the underdog is on a 7-1-1 ATS run in this series.

If I was getting a greater potential return, I'd consider playing LA on the moneyline tonight, but at +115, it's not a wise financial strategy. Instead, I'll grab the 2 to 2 1/2 points. In fact, I encourage you to BUY UP the extra 1/2 point in either situation, making the Lakers either +2 1/2 or +3; thus we're protected should this one go down to the wire like Game Three. By purchasing the extra hook, should Orlando win by a bucket, we get the win at +2 1/2 or +3. A three-point Magic victory leaves us with a push at +3 if your original line was +2 1/2.

FYI - Should this line go down to 1 1/2 for some reason, you would naturally buy up to 2 applying the same logic noted above



BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-------GL GUYS

 

[jnc750]

Anthony Redd

Thursday's Card
5 Dime Indians



5 Dime Yankees run line



5 Dime Phillies run line

 

[metsfan2008]

geez Cork. I've never seen someone buy so many picks and contribute to a forum this much. Thanks for all that you do for this forum! It really helps the smaller players a lot!

 

[Henryjames]

igz1 sports

Thursday Card
Wednesday Recap: 3-0 MLB

MLB
3* Philadelphia (Moyer) -110
3* Under 9 (-125) Detroit (Jackson) vs Chicago W.Sox (Floyd)
3* Under 9 (-130) Cinncinnati (Owens) vs Washington (Lannann)

Good Luck

 

[BegeBro]

Winning Way Sports




Baseball for June 11, 2009

MLB - 2 units on Cleveland Indians (+125)
- Greinke & Sowers
- Action

MLB - 2 units on Tampa Bay Rays (-140)
- Santana & Price
- Action

MLB - 2 units on Baltimore Orioles (-150)
- Olson & Uehara
- Action

 

[cubbiekidd22]

Budin and Demarco are both on the Lakers, buddy of mine purchased Budin.